Al Gore predicted climate change a lot more than ten years ago. Ten years ago was when he produced “An Inconvenient Truth” (I have the book and the video). But long before that, his earlier book, “Earth in the Balance,” which I also have, was published in June 1992 (more than 26 years ago), when he was still a senator, just before he got selected for the VP slot to run with Bill Clinton.
No, Al Gore did not predict climate change. He is not a scientist, but a politician.
But unlike certain conservatives. he listened to what the scientists were saying and understood that the science was the real deal.
Where someone like Gore comes in is that it takes political and social will to make change happen in the face of entrenched opposition and the general “don’t rock the boat, life is okay” attitude of most people.
See the civil rights movement and the anti-war movement, for examples.
I am finding that fewer and fewer “conservatives” (remember when conservatism included conservation?) are managing to spew the anti-global-warming lies with a straight face anymore. I am encouraged – some people can actually believe evidence, despite the propaganda of the petrochemical industry (which knew the truth back in the 1980s, folks – there is documentation) and the Russians (whose main product is fossil fuel energy now).
Too bad they took so long to recognize the obvious, since there has been a vast amount of evidence piling up for decades now. Modern research probably got going more strongly in the late 1960s — which is when Al Gore heard about it from one of his professors — but the last 20-30 years have been amazing for the sheer scope and volume of work being done across multiple scientific fields and hundreds of scientists — with all the evidence pointing the same way. But in fact the origins of the idea are much older.
The first person to predict human-caused climate change was in 1896. Yes, EIGHTEEN ninety-six. The great physicist and chemist Svante Arrhenius identified the potential link between the production of CO2 and increased greenhouse effect way back then, and did a rough calculation of how much CO2 would lead to how much heat increase that is remarkably decent even today.
Not even the Trump supporters in my neck of the woods deny that climate change is causing more forest fires and brush fires earlier and for longer every year. The Fire season has become a year-long catastrophic event. Old people with respiratory problems and young children can’t go outside because of the smoke and chemicals released by the fires in and around our Mountain Valley. We are so grateful to the heroic firefighters trying to save our homes and our lives and the lives of our pets and Friends….. If anyone had the balls to go up to a firefighter and tell them that climate change is a hoax …..that person would deserve anything that got meted out by angry firefighters.
The deniers always miss one very important point about the climate models.
If you remove human CO2 from the models, the models predict that temperatures should be colder than they are.
Plotting model reconstructions of climate from 1901 to 2001, the measured data and the climate diverge at about 1965. In 2000, the measured data is 0.5C warmer than the averaged model values.
This identifies human produced CO2 as the important factor in global warming.
Those treaties are important, and China did not invent global warming. The republicans, by denying science consistently have helped ensure that the US is not part of a solution.
And instead of acting in national interests, they have been pocketing fossil money from fuel interests. So now the Chinese are the leading producer of solar panels.
The Chinese are exploiting US silliness by selling very efficient coal plants to countries which have little carbon footprint, as they upgrade their plants, decommission the old ones and increase solar power all towards more efficient production and reducing their carbon footprint.
All this while Republicans were insisting global warming is a hoax.
It’s sorta too bad the deniers have no concept of what a model is or of the variance in predicted values as well as measured values. OTOH, if you’ve spent your professional years working in health insurance companies, all you really appear to understand is how to make profits by denying claims…
Climate has ALWAYS changed folk.. man has such short memories, they seem to have forgotten that a mere 10,000 years ago there was 3 miles of ice covering New York. We… are observing the continuous change from that period.
If you think the mess (pollution) we make needs working on.. absolutely.. but the climate will change.. because it does.
@Andylit: Sorry, “kid.” I’m a scientist. They’re legit. Your condescending comment is based on nothing.
In fact, if you look at most of the models, they have accurately predicted an increase in temperature – the models used in the IPCC are typically more CONSERVATIVE than what has actually occurred, because they have deliberately chosen conservative models, but they all point the same direction — up.
And even if every single model were wildly wrong — and they aren’t — the fact remains. The Earth is warming far beyond what we should expect due to the normal climactic cycles, and that warmth can be directly linked to the increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. That, in turn, is directly linked to human activity, both directly (burning of fossil fuels) and indirectly (cutting down trees that would otherwise absorb it).
Um, no, you’re confusing climate with weather. We are NOT seeing “continuous change.” We are seeing a rapid shift from the highly predictable and largely stable climactic pattern we should have, and it is not going up and down, but only up. And it is directly attributable to human causes.
Even if it were natural, and it isn’t, that doesn’t mean we should ignore it!
Well, we can always rely on someone to trot out the old “the climate is always changing so this change doesn’t mean anything” meme.
Yes, indeed, glaciers came and went — at glacial speeds. And as a terminus for glaciers, NYC would not have “three miles” of ice. And by 10,000 years ago, the ice was already gone over most of North America.
Temperatures rose during the decline of the ice.
Over thousands of years. Let’s say the temperature rise took 12,000 years.
In the past 60 years, global average temperature has risen by about 1/4 of that temperature rise.
That’s a factor of 50 faster than the naturally occuring event.
And there you have it. This present climate change is enormously faster than previous natural changes. So it is not “climate change as usual.”
Good video of glaciation over the last 120,000 years.
DD Wiz Premium Member almost 6 years ago
Al Gore predicted climate change a lot more than ten years ago. Ten years ago was when he produced “An Inconvenient Truth” (I have the book and the video). But long before that, his earlier book, “Earth in the Balance,” which I also have, was published in June 1992 (more than 26 years ago), when he was still a senator, just before he got selected for the VP slot to run with Bill Clinton.
Baslim the Beggar Premium Member almost 6 years ago
No, Al Gore did not predict climate change. He is not a scientist, but a politician.
But unlike certain conservatives. he listened to what the scientists were saying and understood that the science was the real deal.
Where someone like Gore comes in is that it takes political and social will to make change happen in the face of entrenched opposition and the general “don’t rock the boat, life is okay” attitude of most people.
See the civil rights movement and the anti-war movement, for examples.
shakeswilly almost 6 years ago
Homo sapiens – a species under imminent threat of extinction. Caused by the stupidity of many and the greed of a few.
Masterskrain Premium Member almost 6 years ago
Anyone who STILL believes that “It’s a hoax” nonsense is an utter moron.
Motivemagus almost 6 years ago
I am finding that fewer and fewer “conservatives” (remember when conservatism included conservation?) are managing to spew the anti-global-warming lies with a straight face anymore. I am encouraged – some people can actually believe evidence, despite the propaganda of the petrochemical industry (which knew the truth back in the 1980s, folks – there is documentation) and the Russians (whose main product is fossil fuel energy now).
Too bad they took so long to recognize the obvious, since there has been a vast amount of evidence piling up for decades now. Modern research probably got going more strongly in the late 1960s — which is when Al Gore heard about it from one of his professors — but the last 20-30 years have been amazing for the sheer scope and volume of work being done across multiple scientific fields and hundreds of scientists — with all the evidence pointing the same way. But in fact the origins of the idea are much older.
The first person to predict human-caused climate change was in 1896. Yes, EIGHTEEN ninety-six. The great physicist and chemist Svante Arrhenius identified the potential link between the production of CO2 and increased greenhouse effect way back then, and did a rough calculation of how much CO2 would lead to how much heat increase that is remarkably decent even today.
Radish the wordsmith almost 6 years ago
Republicans want you to buy Koch coal so the Koch’s will bribe them.
Masterskrain Premium Member almost 6 years ago
Someone REALLY needs to check alwayswrong’s meds…his delusions are getting worse.
lopaka almost 6 years ago
I am betting on the guy on the right.
Sadandconfused9 almost 6 years ago
Not even the Trump supporters in my neck of the woods deny that climate change is causing more forest fires and brush fires earlier and for longer every year. The Fire season has become a year-long catastrophic event. Old people with respiratory problems and young children can’t go outside because of the smoke and chemicals released by the fires in and around our Mountain Valley. We are so grateful to the heroic firefighters trying to save our homes and our lives and the lives of our pets and Friends….. If anyone had the balls to go up to a firefighter and tell them that climate change is a hoax …..that person would deserve anything that got meted out by angry firefighters.
Andylit Premium Member almost 6 years ago
Sorry kids. All your projections have been wrong. All the computer models inaccurate.
gopher gofer almost 6 years ago
⇧ says the guy who always insists on hearing the evidence, without offering any evidence for his statement…
Sneaker almost 6 years ago
Baslim the Beggar Premium Member almost 6 years ago
The deniers always miss one very important point about the climate models.
If you remove human CO2 from the models, the models predict that temperatures should be colder than they are.
Plotting model reconstructions of climate from 1901 to 2001, the measured data and the climate diverge at about 1965. In 2000, the measured data is 0.5C warmer than the averaged model values.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-9-5.html
This identifies human produced CO2 as the important factor in global warming.
Those treaties are important, and China did not invent global warming. The republicans, by denying science consistently have helped ensure that the US is not part of a solution.
And instead of acting in national interests, they have been pocketing fossil money from fuel interests. So now the Chinese are the leading producer of solar panels.
The Chinese are exploiting US silliness by selling very efficient coal plants to countries which have little carbon footprint, as they upgrade their plants, decommission the old ones and increase solar power all towards more efficient production and reducing their carbon footprint.
All this while Republicans were insisting global warming is a hoax.That’s leadership for you! /end extreme sarc
martens almost 6 years ago
It’s sorta too bad the deniers have no concept of what a model is or of the variance in predicted values as well as measured values. OTOH, if you’ve spent your professional years working in health insurance companies, all you really appear to understand is how to make profits by denying claims…
Alberta Oil Premium Member almost 6 years ago
Climate has ALWAYS changed folk.. man has such short memories, they seem to have forgotten that a mere 10,000 years ago there was 3 miles of ice covering New York. We… are observing the continuous change from that period.
If you think the mess (pollution) we make needs working on.. absolutely.. but the climate will change.. because it does.Motivemagus almost 6 years ago
@Andylit: Sorry, “kid.” I’m a scientist. They’re legit. Your condescending comment is based on nothing.
In fact, if you look at most of the models, they have accurately predicted an increase in temperature – the models used in the IPCC are typically more CONSERVATIVE than what has actually occurred, because they have deliberately chosen conservative models, but they all point the same direction — up.
And even if every single model were wildly wrong — and they aren’t — the fact remains. The Earth is warming far beyond what we should expect due to the normal climactic cycles, and that warmth can be directly linked to the increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. That, in turn, is directly linked to human activity, both directly (burning of fossil fuels) and indirectly (cutting down trees that would otherwise absorb it).
Motivemagus almost 6 years ago
@Alberta Oil
Um, no, you’re confusing climate with weather. We are NOT seeing “continuous change.” We are seeing a rapid shift from the highly predictable and largely stable climactic pattern we should have, and it is not going up and down, but only up. And it is directly attributable to human causes.
Even if it were natural, and it isn’t, that doesn’t mean we should ignore it!
Baslim the Beggar Premium Member almost 6 years ago
Well, we can always rely on someone to trot out the old “the climate is always changing so this change doesn’t mean anything” meme.
Yes, indeed, glaciers came and went — at glacial speeds. And as a terminus for glaciers, NYC would not have “three miles” of ice. And by 10,000 years ago, the ice was already gone over most of North America.
Temperatures rose during the decline of the ice.
Over thousands of years. Let’s say the temperature rise took 12,000 years.
In the past 60 years, global average temperature has risen by about 1/4 of that temperature rise.
That’s a factor of 50 faster than the naturally occuring event.And there you have it. This present climate change is enormously faster than previous natural changes. So it is not “climate change as usual.”
Good video of glaciation over the last 120,000 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USIAcXfv39k