Yeah. Just think of the first 9,999,999 stabs as being warm-up.
If you cannot lie to yourself with statistics, you aren’t really trying.
As a late friend of mine used to say in answer to anti-sciencers questioning evolution – the odds against something happening become meaningless once it’s happened.
83% of statistics are just made up anyway.
Statistics say that 95% of accidents happen within 25 miles of home. So as soon as you get 26 miles away, floor it!
“Never tell me the odds!”
a classic case of not adjusting your priors
Once something has actually happened, the fact that it was overwhelmingly improbable yesterday doesn’t seem that important.
October 31, 2014
March 05, 2017
June 13, 2017
September 08, 2017
September 24, 2017
May 07, 2018