Republicans have further tilted the entire playing field to their advantage structurally. They had a 5-7% advantage in the house before, it’ll be an advantage of up to 9% for the next 10 years now.
That will mean for the Dems to “win” control of the house, they’d need to outvote Republicans by nearly 10%…only outvoting them by 5% would be a guaranteed Dem “loss”
In addition, Republicans have an advantage in the Senate and Electoral College.
The Senate had a 5 point bias in favor of Republicans in 2020.
The Electoral College had a 3.5 point bias in favor of Republicans in 2020.
Biden won the popular vote by 7 million, but was only 44,000 votes across 3 states from losing the Electoral College.
Then we get into the fact that midterms see under 50% voter turnout, and generally turnout is low by international standards.
The entire system of national governance is rigged for Republican minority rule. State governments vary, but a significant number are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans.
Republicans have further tilted the entire playing field to their advantage structurally. They had a 5-7% advantage in the house before, it’ll be an advantage of up to 9% for the next 10 years now.
That will mean for the Dems to “win” control of the house, they’d need to outvote Republicans by nearly 10%…only outvoting them by 5% would be a guaranteed Dem “loss”
In addition, Republicans have an advantage in the Senate and Electoral College.
The Senate had a 5 point bias in favor of Republicans in 2020.
The Electoral College had a 3.5 point bias in favor of Republicans in 2020.
Biden won the popular vote by 7 million, but was only 44,000 votes across 3 states from losing the Electoral College.
Then we get into the fact that midterms see under 50% voter turnout, and generally turnout is low by international standards.
The entire system of national governance is rigged for Republican minority rule. State governments vary, but a significant number are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans.