“unemployment is shrinking by one-tenth of a percentage per month,”
That’s not quite the path, because it’s been very bouncy for the last few months. Read beyond the headlines and you will see that one of the reasons the unemployment percentage rate has been declining is people quit looking for work, i.e. drop out of the “labor pool.”. Add to that the “quality” of the jobs is not been consistently improving. We are generating a lot of part time and lower grade service sector jobs. Read the Bloomberg business web site “calendar” section for a little more detail. Last month was good, but there has not been a pattern of strong improvement.