The earth warmed and cooled, sometimes dramatically, long before there was fossil fuel around, or pulluting factories such as the one above. This is a fact that is not very popular because it does not fit in with an agenda.
Do you know we refer to the last ice age as “the last ice age”? It is because there have been many ice ages over the life of the earth. In between the ice ages, we had global warming. It is the nature of the earth to warm up and cool down over periods of time.
Baslim, thanks for the extended post. For those not reading it (eg, Gore Bane, Mneedle, Mstevenson), saying that “climate changes naturally therefore we have nothing to do with it” is a non sequitur. Yes, climate changes, and it is generally predictable in which direction over long periods. The current shift of the past 150 years is at dramatic variance with normal cycles. Therefore, something else is at work here. The prime suspect is CO2 levels introduced by human activity. Since it is known that CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas, trapping heat, the more you have, the more heat you keep. We know this from studies of other planets and historical studies of our own. Since the primary source of increased CO2 is human activity (and that does NOT just mean use of oil and coal, that also includes cutting down trees which might absorb it, for example), therefore, human activity —> increased CO2 —> more trapped heat than before —> many changes in the climate, which leads to a host of other changes still being worked out, because secondary and tertiary effects are complicated. But as of this point, that last point (extended effects) only real question to scientists. Human-cause global warming is not in question anymore, that is a fact. One hypothesis is that we will get more hurricanes because they are powered by ocean heat. Recently, some have proposed that the change will not be in number, but in size and power – and that may be closer to the truth. And that is the way science really works.
Adrian, you raise an interesting point about losers and gainers. Americans tend to be very myopic on worldly matters such as climate change; if they can see no immediate effect on their own limited environment, then all the scare talk is just that. But look at the effects of rising sea levels (eight inches since 1900!) and the damage to coastal communities from major storms (Sandy is a good recent example). Hotter (and often drier, in many areas) weather means more forest fires, as have happened throughout the western USA and Australia. And climate shifts bring extremes, often within a few years or even months of each other — witness the severe drought in the midwest last year and the terrible flooding that’s happening right now. Yes, Russia could experience a milder climate (something most of its citizens would no doubt welcome), but that could also mean mass melting of Siberian permafrost, releasing huge amounts of trapped methane that is much more efficient at creating greenhouse warming than carbon dioxide. Furthermore, get ready for increasing international crises as poorer countries start to run out of food and cannot import enough to feed their people. This could make international terrorism seem like child’s play.
Too bad the study didn’t show that the CO2 did not rise until the temperature rose. This is just a lot of gobbledygook trying to make CO2 out to be the bad guy. And, if anyone of any sense looked carefully at the ice core records they would see that the CO2 rise ALWAYS followed – never preceded – the temperature rise. So, tell me again how CO2 causes global warming?
There are dozens of other studies proving man is NOT the culprit when it comes to global warming.
I’m confused. The article you quote clearly says “the season is still shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active.” And Breen’s headline is “Above normal hurricane season predicted.” Sounds as if your article supports what he says. If someone is selling bread for $1, then raises the price to $3, and then lowers it to $2, it’s still an increase over the original price, and we would be pretty annoyed if he said he was slashing the price by a dollar when he really raised it by $2 to begin with.
You asked Adrian Snare for his scientific credentials. I suppose, then, that you are prepared to tell us your scientific credentials? I’ll tell you mine — I have none, and therefore I don’t post on this topic. I do read with great interest the posts and links from those who do have scientific credentials, and I’ve learned a lot. You credentials are…?
Baslim the Beggar – your arguments are valid and well taken by me. How about those who commented above that they were laughing their butts off because everything you said really went over their buts?
Brutatowski almost 11 years ago
The earth warmed and cooled, sometimes dramatically, long before there was fossil fuel around, or pulluting factories such as the one above. This is a fact that is not very popular because it does not fit in with an agenda.
Mneedle almost 11 years ago
Do you know we refer to the last ice age as “the last ice age”? It is because there have been many ice ages over the life of the earth. In between the ice ages, we had global warming. It is the nature of the earth to warm up and cool down over periods of time.
ConserveGov almost 11 years ago
China should have a hurricane every day if its pollution causing them.
Motivemagus almost 11 years ago
Baslim, thanks for the extended post. For those not reading it (eg, Gore Bane, Mneedle, Mstevenson), saying that “climate changes naturally therefore we have nothing to do with it” is a non sequitur. Yes, climate changes, and it is generally predictable in which direction over long periods. The current shift of the past 150 years is at dramatic variance with normal cycles. Therefore, something else is at work here. The prime suspect is CO2 levels introduced by human activity. Since it is known that CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas, trapping heat, the more you have, the more heat you keep. We know this from studies of other planets and historical studies of our own. Since the primary source of increased CO2 is human activity (and that does NOT just mean use of oil and coal, that also includes cutting down trees which might absorb it, for example), therefore, human activity —> increased CO2 —> more trapped heat than before —> many changes in the climate, which leads to a host of other changes still being worked out, because secondary and tertiary effects are complicated. But as of this point, that last point (extended effects) only real question to scientists. Human-cause global warming is not in question anymore, that is a fact. One hypothesis is that we will get more hurricanes because they are powered by ocean heat. Recently, some have proposed that the change will not be in number, but in size and power – and that may be closer to the truth. And that is the way science really works.
apfelzra Premium Member almost 11 years ago
Adrian, you raise an interesting point about losers and gainers. Americans tend to be very myopic on worldly matters such as climate change; if they can see no immediate effect on their own limited environment, then all the scare talk is just that. But look at the effects of rising sea levels (eight inches since 1900!) and the damage to coastal communities from major storms (Sandy is a good recent example). Hotter (and often drier, in many areas) weather means more forest fires, as have happened throughout the western USA and Australia. And climate shifts bring extremes, often within a few years or even months of each other — witness the severe drought in the midwest last year and the terrible flooding that’s happening right now. Yes, Russia could experience a milder climate (something most of its citizens would no doubt welcome), but that could also mean mass melting of Siberian permafrost, releasing huge amounts of trapped methane that is much more efficient at creating greenhouse warming than carbon dioxide. Furthermore, get ready for increasing international crises as poorer countries start to run out of food and cannot import enough to feed their people. This could make international terrorism seem like child’s play.
jimguess almost 11 years ago
Too bad the study didn’t show that the CO2 did not rise until the temperature rose. This is just a lot of gobbledygook trying to make CO2 out to be the bad guy. And, if anyone of any sense looked carefully at the ice core records they would see that the CO2 rise ALWAYS followed – never preceded – the temperature rise. So, tell me again how CO2 causes global warming?
There are dozens of other studies proving man is NOT the culprit when it comes to global warming.
But idiots don’t listen to the truth.
jimguess almost 11 years ago
Right! The ivory tower ‘intellectuals’ don’t want to listen to facts. Their minds are already made up.
jimguess almost 11 years ago
How about PLANT FOOD???
’’dr" canuck, have you ever studied biology? Do you have a clue as to how photosynthesis works?
Sigh …
Zaristerex almost 11 years ago
If global warming were real, my family in Canada would rejoice! Temperatures of -25º instead of -30º!
ossiningaling almost 11 years ago
Thank you for that awesome summary.
lonecat almost 11 years ago
I’m confused. The article you quote clearly says “the season is still shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active.” And Breen’s headline is “Above normal hurricane season predicted.” Sounds as if your article supports what he says. If someone is selling bread for $1, then raises the price to $3, and then lowers it to $2, it’s still an increase over the original price, and we would be pretty annoyed if he said he was slashing the price by a dollar when he really raised it by $2 to begin with.
lonecat almost 11 years ago
You asked Adrian Snare for his scientific credentials. I suppose, then, that you are prepared to tell us your scientific credentials? I’ll tell you mine — I have none, and therefore I don’t post on this topic. I do read with great interest the posts and links from those who do have scientific credentials, and I’ve learned a lot. You credentials are…?
btirva5940 almost 11 years ago
Baslim the Beggar – your arguments are valid and well taken by me. How about those who commented above that they were laughing their butts off because everything you said really went over their buts?