From 538.com:“The major constraint Mr. Paul faces is that his base of support, while enthusiastic, is quite narrow, with his preferences diverging from many Republican voters’ on foreign policy and on social policy. This shows up clearly in the polling data, which tells a consistent story. Mr. Paul is going to have trouble securing more than about one-third of Republican votes even in the best-case scenario for his campaign: – In last week’s CNN poll, only 39 percent of Republicans said they would consider Mr. Paul’s candidacy. – In last week’s Washington Post / ABC News poll, only 37 percent of Republicans said Mr. Paul “has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president.” – According to a Gallup poll conducted earlier this month, just 34 percent of Republican voters consider Mr. Paul to be an “acceptable” nominee. – In last week’s Public Policy Polling survey, Mr. Paul’s favorability rating among Republican voters was 34 percent. – In this month’s Pew poll, only 33 percent of Republican voters said they would consider voting for Mr. Paul.”
However, Mr. Silver does not note that Paul’s enthusiastic supporters include the KKK and the John Birch Society, neither famed for being liberals, but indeed composed mostly of Republicans.