Peanuts by Charles Schulz for June 26, 1956
June 25, 1956
June 27, 1956
Transcript:
Charlie Brown is puzzled as he watches Lucy look up into the sky. It is nighttime and they are standing in the field. She asks, "Do you know that a star has never fallen in this backyard?" <br> <br> She exclaims, "Never, Charlie Brown! Never in over a Million years!"<br> <br> He looks up into the sky as she continues, "So I'm going to stand here until one does.."<br> <br> She concludes, "The way I see it, the odds are with me!"<br> <br>
Oh, that’s a common misconception. It even has a name, though it’s slipping my mind. Anyway, it’s the idea that if something hasn’t happened for a long time, it’s more likely that it will happen soon. Like, if you flip a coin and get 4 heads in a row, it’s more likely the next flip will be tails. While the probability of getting HHHHH is quite low (3.125%), it’s actually exactly as likely as getting HTHTH or HHTTT or any other specific set of outcomes for flipping a coin five times.