Heel! Stop! Slow down! Noooooo!
Today, David Brooks explains why Trump cannot possibly win..http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/opinion/no-donald-trump-wont-win.html.He quotes fivethirtyeight that polls this early are not reliable. But that’s only part..Mr Trump grabbed about 20% of those likely to vote in Republican primaries and caucuses almost as soon as he entered the race. fivethirtyeight figured he’d be out after the first debate. They were wrong. About 20% to 30% of those who will vote in the Republican nominating process are fervently for Mr Trump. But a majority are just as fervently against Mr Trump. At first, 16 candidates split the anti-Trump vote, with the biggest share being about 10%, and Mr Trump’s plurality was double that of his closest competitor. Now, there are still 13 candidates splitting 70% of the vote, and the next three to drop have 0% each, so things won’t change before New Hampshire..Only Dr Carson’s followers might switch to Mr Trump if the doctor withdraws, those now planning to vote for one of the other 12 will switch to another of the 12 when their preferred candidate withdraws..Mr Trump might get a plurality, but it takes a majority of the delegates to win the nomination, and there is absolutely no way Mr Trump can possibly get that majority.
April 12, 2017
August 08, 2017
August 01, 2017
September 22, 2017