I sincerely doubt the abandonment of the Kurds will twitch the needle on the base at all.
Attitudes are hardening up on impeachment and the “Trump above all” group seems to be exactly what his base has always been, a bit over a third of the population, and about 40% of voters, give or take a tiny bit, that seems to be where it is headed. And the solid support is based in rural areas. The suburbs are leaving Trump country rapidly, and that’s not likely to reverse.
Given those facts, and the fact that the base just doesn’t care at all what happens in Washington or any city, other than to hold up whatever as a bad example, and that’s where we are.
So the Kurds aren’t even going to provide much of a distraction. Though I expect the population of North Iraq to jump.
Where do we go from there? Simple enough, given this, we can predict the probable outcome of the next elections, just by taking the total of rural voters as going for pro-Trump whoever, and run with that.
So where does that put us? For one thing, Texas is very likely much more in play than previously thought. For another, so is Georgia, which has been rapidly urbanizing. Indiania is very likely to go blue as well.
Straight ticket voting can now be considered the norm once again. Differences between parties are that acute.
I will say that you’re going to have a very hard time getting over 60 Senators, and an impossible job to get 67. However, if DC, Puerto Rico and some other territories were added as states, that calculas would rapidly change.