Jeff Stahler for December 12, 2021

Cute.

At the current rate, (less than 7%) they all round back up to the original numbers except the 12 drummers.

And a partridge in a fake treeee

Wages are up. Child tax credits alone have put families ahead of inflation.

Inflation has existed for a very long time. In 1929 you could have bought a loaf of bread for 29 cents, amongst everything else that was cheaper. Wages were lower too, so it all balances off. The pandemic brought a disruption to the economy that has caused a bump, but it will settle. The infrastructure bill will support good paying jobs. In the meantime, people are spending money and not finding supply issues to actually be a problem.

Part of inflation comes from ‘free shipping’. Shipping is not free, the cost is added in. And hence, inflation.

We have a situation that is different than the inflation of the 1970’s. That was manufactured by the oil embargo. The price of oil bounced up and down in the following decades, but it was never going back to $6 a barrel.

Our current shortages are not as permanent.

I am a supply chain analyst, but I do not do forecasting. I just watch our forecasters pull their hair out. The pandemic is a once a century disruption that takes all the models for forecasting and tosses them in the dumpster. The stagnation of economy in 2020 pushed all the parameters for the models beyond the ability for the models to handle.

I predict that we will overcompensate and we will have pendulum-like swings of boom and bust until we can establish an equilibrium. Inflation will abate, but probably leave us ratcheted up slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Fortunately, the American economy is large enough to absorb the surges. This is a gut feeling based on what I’ve seen before. I have NOT put mathematical rigors to it. I don’t think I can based on what I cited above.

Projection is a dangerous game: I recall reading about a study done in the mid-19th century on the population growth of New York City. It was fairly accurate on predicting the number of people that would live in the City in 1950. However it also predicted the number of horses needed to support the population and came to the conclusion that New York City would be several feet deep in horse manure by that time.

Interpolation is an accurate process, extrapolation needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

and supply chain issues, which in turn is making people gouging on items. My daughter was trying to but my granddaughter a much wanted present. Walmart was selling it for $85.00 when it was in stock. Now it isn’t , so she went on amazon and found it for $230.00,

At least cheerful is still a part of the season. Best to all from our house

I guess you’ll have to revert to worshiping Christ since your unreasonable material needs aren’t being met. Maybe you can pray for material goods.

The news media needs to ask…So, Sen. Trumpy Bootlicker, how are YOU and your caucus helping to address and mitigate the inflation issue for the American people”?

Is anyone else here as sick & tired of hearing about iniflation as i am?

Of course there’s inflation- it’s all about supply and demand -especially for fuel.

i’m also sure it has a lot to do with unloaded container ships at anchor off the Pacific ports, and the sharp rise in (empty) container prices.

It’s a manufactured crisis.

Ho ho yawn.

Funny, I think!

How much of that is still sitting in an unloaded container somewhere?

Uncle Joe told us to not worry ourselves over these trivial matters. Seems the good little Nazis agree, nothing to see here move along. Same with violent crime, it’s all some GOP/Trump wet dream.

“sent”. Right there the cause of the problem. You see, no such thing as ‘free shipping’.