Two good reasons why Obama’s poll numbers are down: (1) the failure of his administration to anticipate and prepare for the inadequacies of heathcare.gov, or develop a template that state exchanges could use … and (2) the real problems with the ACA resulting from trying to please everybody at the same time. All made worse by overly-optimistic expectations about how this all would play out. His approval ratings remain above those of George W. Bush: 41 vs 38 at the same time in Bush’s second term. Obama’s low point was 38 (so far, though this was 2 years ago), Bush’s was 25. Bush’s second term average was 37, Obama’s second-term average is (so far) in the mid-40s. Bush got a huge lift from 9/11, with a 90% rating that fall, which declined steadily until he left office with a 25% rating. Obama came in with a high of 69% which decline in the first few months to 50%, and has bounced between 38 and 50 since then. On the whole pretty consistent, compared to the long steady decline of Bush. As of right now, Bush’s overall average approval rating and Obama’s overall average approval rating are the same, 49%.It is unlikely that Obama will lose in approval rating so badly that his second term come anywhere near the depths of Bush’s second term, but without some significant improvements, his full two-term average is likely to be lower than Bush’s, since Bush’s huge post-9/11 ratings raise his overall average so much, no matter how badly he fared later.